AI Isn’t Crashing — It’s Shifting: What Scott Galloway’s 2026 Predictions Mean for Small Businesses

Scott Galloway doesn’t do gentle forecasting. In his No Mercy / No Malice: 2026 Predictions episode on The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway, he argues that the AI “bubble” won’t pop quietly. It will be punctured — likely by geopolitics, not technology.

For listed tech stocks, that’s drama. For small businesses, it’s something else entirely: opportunity, leverage, and lower costs — if you know how to play it.

Let’s translate the macro noise into SBPS-relevant signal.

The Big Idea (Minus the Chest-Beating)

Galloway’s core thesis is simple:

AI progress is real.

AI hype is frothy.

And the pressure point isn’t Silicon Valley — it’s China.

China has already reduced its dependence on US trade while quietly increasing global exports. If tensions escalate, Galloway predicts a familiar move: AI dumping. Think early-2000s steel dumping, but with large language models instead of rebar.

The implication: high-quality AI models flooding the market at very low cost.

For Wall Street, that’s a margin nightmare.

For small businesses, it’s a pricing gift.

Why This Matters Specifically for Small Businesses

Most SBPS clients aren’t betting on Nvidia stock. They’re trying to:

• Write faster

• Market smarter

• Reduce admin

• Compete with bigger players without hiring a 10-person team

Here’s the under-appreciated twist in Galloway’s prediction:

AI gets cheaper and more interchangeable, faster than most people expect.

That’s not a threat to small business. That’s leverage.

If multiple models perform “good enough,” then how you use AI becomes more important than which AI you use.

That’s already the SBPS thesis.

The Quiet Trend Galloway Accidentally Confirms

Galloway notes that a large percentage of well-known startups are already using open-source or Chinese-origin models under the hood.

Translation:

Even premium brands are quietly de-commoditising AI.

This reinforces a hard truth for small businesses in 2026:

• The model is not your advantage

• The system is Prompts, workflows, templates, governance, and repeatable processes are where value lives now.

That’s why SBPS focuses on applied AI, not tool worship.

What Small Businesses Should Do Before the Market Corrects

Here’s the pragmatic SBPS playbook in light of these predictions:

1. Stop Optimising for One Tool

If your entire workflow collapses without a specific model, you’re exposed. Build AI-agnostic processes that can swap engines without drama.

2. Expect Prices to Fall — and Plan for It

Lower AI costs mean you can:

• Automate more

• Test more

• Produce more content without guilt
  The constraint shifts from budget to clarity.

3. Treat AI Like Electricity, Not a Miracle

No one asks which power station runs their toaster. AI is heading the same way. Businesses that operationalise it early will feel “quietly ahead” rather than visibly flashy.

4. Invest in Thinking, Not Guessing

When tools commoditise, strategy differentiates. Clear positioning, strong messaging, and disciplined execution matter more — not less.

The SBPS Lens: Calm Beats Clever

Galloway’s language is sharp. The underlying lesson is calm.

AI volatility doesn’t punish small businesses first. It usually helps them — by lowering barriers, reducing costs, and levelling the field.

The winners in 2026 won’t be the ones chasing every new model announcement. They’ll be the ones who built steady, boring, effective AI habits in 2024–2025.

That’s not exciting.

It’s profitable.

Final Thought

If Galloway is right — and history suggests he often is — then the AI story isn’t about collapse. It’s about compression.

Margins compress. Prices compress. Differentiation compresses.

Which means clarity, systems, and execution expand.

That’s where small businesses can punch well above their weight — without punching themselves in the face chasing hype.

SBPS exists for exactly this moment.